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This work is devoted to studying the transmission dynamics of CoV-2 under the effect of vaccination. The aforesaid model is considered under fractional derivative with variable order of nonsingular kernel type known as Atangan-Baleanue-Caputo (ABC). Fundamental properties of the proposed model including equilibrium points and R0 are obtained by using nonlinear analysis. The existence and uniqueness of solution to the considered model are investigated via fixed point theorems due to Banach and Krasnoselskii. Also, the Ulam-Hyers (UH) approach of stability is used for the said model. Further numerical analysis is investigated by using fundamental theorems of AB fractional calculus and the iterative numerical techniques due to Adams-Bashforth. Numerical simulations are performed by using different values of fractional-variable order ?(??) for the model. The respective results are demonstrated by using real data from Saudi Arabia for graphical presentation.
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Introduction: the value of oxygen as a prognostic maker of mortality due to COVID-19 pneumonia has not been evaluated at the Hospital General Docente "Dr. Agostinho Neto". Background: to identify the values of oxygenation markers for prognosing mortality caused by COVID-19 pneumonia at the Hospital General Docente "Dr. Agostinho Neto" de Guantanamo, Cuba, throughout period 2020-2021. Method: a cohort of 276 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was studied. Peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2), the difference between the oxygen concentration in the alveoli and arterial system (DA-aO2), arterial oxygen pressure ratio (PaO2) and inspired oxygen fraction (FiO2) [PaO2/FiO2] were studied. The association between variables and deceased discharge was determined using the Chi-square technique and the Odds Ratio (OR) calculation. Results: the variable with the highest positive predictive value was SpO2 (87.3%) with a value lower than 90 mmHg at admission. The highest negative predictive value was recorded for the DA-aO2 variable (95.6%), less than 20 mmHg at 48 hours after admission. Attributable risk was higher for PaO2/FiO2 ratio, less than 300 mmHg (0.59), at admission (0.52). Attributable risk percent was higher for the variable DA-aO2 20 mmHg at admission (95.8%) and at 48 hours after admission (95.3%). Conclusions: abnormal DA-aO2, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, SaO2 and SpO2, at admission and 48 hours after admission, are predictive markers of mortality in patients with COVID-19.
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Introduction: The epidemiology of respiratory infections changed fundamentally during COVID-19 pandemic. While during lockdown periods numbers of respiratory infection were low, an increase of respiratory syncytial virus and rhinovirus infections was reported outside the natural season. Viral infections being the main trigger for asthma and wheeze episodes in children, we aimed to investigate the impact of this observation on children and adults. Method(s): Within the ALL Age Asthma Cohort (ALLIANCE), an observational, longitudinal multicenter asthma study, we assessed data regarding disease control, use of medication and etiology of exacerbations at three time points, during (pilot: Feb-Aug 2020: n= 280, phase 1: Oct-Apr 2020/21: n= 412) and after lockdown periods (phase 2: JunOct 2021: n= 327). Result(s): We observed high proportions of improvement in disease burden in preschool children (age 0-5.9 years) during lockdown periods in the pilot-phase (35%) and in phase 1 (32%). While after easing of hygiene measures none of the preschool children reported improvement (phase 1/phase 2;p = 0.02), 29% showed worsening of their condition (pilot/phase 2, p = 0.01) associated with viral infections and higher need for medication. Children aged 6-18 years showed a stable course over all phases. In contrast, adults reported worsening of their asthma (pilot, 19%, phase 1, 29%), but no significant change in phase 2 (23%). Conclusion(s): COVID-19 related measures caused a reduction and re-emerge of respiratory virus infections, which influenced the course of disease in preschool children with recurrent wheeze, but not in older children and adults with asthma.
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Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the pattern of medical services changed to minimize transmission to health care workers (HCWs) or hospitalized patients. Despite the care of COVID-19 patients in a special ward, new cases are accidentally discovered. This study aimed at determining the antibody seroprevalence among asymptomatic HCWs and the associated risks. Methods: The study involved 190 participants, including physicians, nurses, technicians, and administrative staff. All were inquired for sociodemographic, specialty, previous isolation, and previous infection, and their blood was tested for SARS-CoV2 antibody. Results: Of 190 HCWs;72,1% were females, the mean age was 32.6±7.9 years, 10.5% were smokers, and 15.8% reported co-morbid illness. SARS CoV2 antibodies were found in 68 (35.8%);being IgG, IgM and both IgM and IgG in 47 (69.1%), 10 (14.7%) and 11 (16.2%) participants respectively. The prevalence was higher (47.6%) among HCWs of the COVID unit, [OR=1.7 (95% CI: 0.69-4.3)] and HCWs with previous COVID-19, OR:1.61 (95% CI:0.88-2.94). The prevalence was significantly lower among smokers (p=0.049), OR:0.29 (95% CI:0.08-1.01), and significantly higher in HCWs who recalled cough (p=0.036) OR: 1.97 (95% CI: 1.05-3.69). The likelihood of antibody seropositivity increased in technicians [OR:2.02 (95% CI: 0.92-4.44)], followed by physicians [OR:1.7 (95% CI: 0.7-4.33)] while the odds ratio was low among nurses [OR:0.58 (95% CI: 0.32-1.07). Conclusion: A considerable proportion of antibody positive HCWs had evidence of past SARS CoV2. Provision of adequate personal protective equipment and periodic screening of HCWs are urgently needed to lessen the transmission within the health care settings. © 2020 The author (s).
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In this work, we present a model that uses the fractional order Caputo derivative for the novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with different hospitalization strategies for severe and mild cases and incorporate an awareness program. We generalize the SEIR model of the spread of COVID-19 with a private focus on the transmissibility of people who are aware of the disease and follow preventative health measures and people who are ignorant of the disease and do not follow preventive health measures. Moreover, individuals with severe, mild symptoms and asymptomatically infected are also considered. The basic reproduction number (R0) and local stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) in terms of R0 are investigated. Also, the uniqueness and existence of the solution are studied. Numerical simulations are performed by using some real values of parameters. Furthermore, the immunization of a sample of aware susceptible individuals in the proposed model to forecast the effect of the vaccination is also considered. Also, an investigation of the effect of public awareness on transmission dynamics is one of our aim in this work. Finally, a prediction about the evolution of COVID-19 in 1000 days is given. For the qualitative theory of the existence of a solution, we use some tools of nonlinear analysis, including Lipschitz criteria. Also, for the numerical interpretation, we use the Adams-Moulton-Bashforth procedure. All the numerical results are presented graphically. © 2023 Tech Science Press. All rights reserved.
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Introduction During COVID-19 pandemic, the epidemiology of respiratory infections changed fundamentally. During lockdown periods rates of respiratory infection were low. An increase of respiratory syncytial virus and rhinovirus infections was reported after easing of hygiene measures compared to lockdown and pre-pandemic periods. We investigated the impact of this observation on children and adults with wheeze and asthma. Methods Within the ALL Age Asthma Cohort (ALLIANCE), we conducted questionnaires at three time points, during (Pilot: Feb-Aug 2020: n= 279, Phase 1: Oct-Apr 2020/21: n= 412) and after lockdown periods (Phase 2 Jun-Oct 2021: n= 327). Data on disease control (based on personal assessment and adapted GINA control status), use of medication and etiology of exacerbations were analyzed. Results Preschool children (age 0-5.9 years) showed a noticeable high improvement of 35% (Pilot) and 32% (Phase 1) in disease burden measured by specific symptoms and general personal assessment during lockdown periods. In contrast after easing of hygiene measures none of the preschoolers reported improvement compared to the beginning of the pandemic and lockdown phases (Pilot/ Phase 2;p= 0,0003;Phase 1/Phase 2;p = 0.004), but 29% showed worsening of their condition (Pilot/Phase 2, p = 0.02), associated with viral infections and higher need for medication. Children aged 6- 18 years had a stable asthma course over all phases. Adults reported higher proportion of worsening of their asthma in Phase 1 (30%) in comparison to the Pilot (19%), (p = 0.02), but not in Phase 2 (22%) compared to the Pilot (p= 0.39) or Phase 1 (p= 0.14). Conclusion COVID-19 related measures caused a reduction and re-emergence of respiratory virus infections, which influenced the course of disease in preschool children with recurrent wheeze, but not in older children and adults with asthma.
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Background: People living with HIV are thought to be at higher risk for poor outcomes (including higher hospitalization and mortality rates) from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infection. Whether risk is linked to HIV-related factors, demographics or comorbid burden is unclear. We examine risk factors and outcomes of those living with HIV who acquired COVID-19 and received care within two large healthcare systems in Denver, CO. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted for all individuals with HIV diagnosed with COVID-19 at the two largest Colorado HIV care centers between 1 March and 31 October 2020. COVID-19 diagnosis required a positive PCR result;HIV diagnosis was extracted from the medical record. Risk factors forhospitalization and longer hospital length of stay (LOS) were examined and compared via univariate and multivariable analysis. Results: Among 94 patients, 81% were male, with a mean age of 46 (SD 13.5) years. The majority had HIV-1 RNA levels <50 copies/mL (87%) and CD4 count >500 cells/mm3 (55%). Most (75%) had ≥1 comorbidity;64% were overweight or obese. 39% of patients were admitted to the hospital (17% to intensive care). Increased odds of hospitalization were associated with increased age, lower CD4 count, and increased number of comorbidities (including diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, chronic pulmonary disease, cardiac disease, mental health concerns, and obesity) (Table). In multivariable analyses, only lower CD4 count (OR 1.28) and comorbidity count (OR 1.62) remained significant. Among hospitalized patients, longer LOS was univariately associated with age (52% longer LOS per 10 year age increase [95% CI 16,101%], p=0.004) but not CD4 count (-8%, [95% CI-18, 5%] % change in LOS per 100 cell/mm3 increase, p=0.21), HIV-1 viral load ≥200 copies/mL (-33% [95% CI-77, 90%], p=0.44), or comorbidity count (10% [95% CI-17, 43%] change in LOS per additional comorbidity, p=0.49). Sensitivity analyses excluding 9 patients hospitalized for non-COVID reasons provided similar findings. Conclusion: Lower CD4 count was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization among patients with concurrent HIV and COVID-19, suggesting that successful HIV treatment remains a key component to decreasing HIV-related morbidity. (Figure Presented).